Russian economic report pdf

This report is produced twice a year by world bank economists in the macroeconomics, trade and investment mti global practice. The impact of these twin shocks drove russias economy into a deep recession, which reached its nadir in the second quarter of 2015. And, as we discuss below, domestic demand was more robust than expected. In terms of economic impact, studies suggest that sanctions have had a negative but relatively modest impact on russias growth. Several reasons have been proposed to explain the slowdown, including prolonged recession in the eu, which is russias largest trading partner, stagnant oil prices, lack of spare industrial capacity and. A worker pushes a wheelbarrow at a construction site next to a russian orthodox church in central moscow on november 3, 2008. Download russia monthly economic developments april 2020 as a pdf the covid19 pandemic is severely affecting global economic activity as countries race to stem the spread of the virus. After the collapse of the soviet union in 1991 and collapse of russias controlled economy, a new russian federation was created under boris yeltsin in 1991. Tensions with the west will remain high and we expect eu and us sanctions, as well as russian countersanctions, to remain in place in 202024.

Russian prospects political and economic scenarios. May 27, 2019 the russian economy is stagnating and russian president vladimir putins plan to revitalise it with his 12 national projects is off to a very slow start. The impact of these twin shocks drove russia s economy into a deep recession, which reached its nadir in the second quarter of 2015. In the first part of the report we paint a portrait of russia s current situation and the major developmental tendencies we expect will mark the next 15 years in russia. Still, recent developments in chinarussia militarytomilitary relations have important implications for u. As a result of the russian crisis, spreads on sovereign bonds in other emerging markets and on longterm corporate bonds in industrial countries rise substantially. China, russia and iran ramp up economic spying on us. Russia has undergone significant changes since the collapse of the soviet union, moving from a centrally planned economy towards a more marketbased system. Current trends in economic indicators affecting russia. Russian federation staff report article iv consultation, 2 august. Economic conditions in russia russia faced a number of economic challenges in 2014 and 2015, including capital flight, rapid depreciation of the ruble, exclusion from international capital markets, inflation, and domestic budgetary pressures. At the time russias sovereign default is the largest in history. The rapid increase in wages, outpacing productivity growth, and the appreciation of the currency continued to undermine the competitiveness of tradables.

Pdf the paper discusses economic development trends in russia in late 2014 and 2015 and. While the global economy weakened, russias economic performance strengthened in the second half of 2011. The world bank s russia economic report analyzes recent economic developments, presents the mediumterm economic outlook, and provides an indepth analysis of a particular topic. Knowing where and when russia is likely to commit economic, military, or diplomatic resources can. The growth momentum of the second half of 2016 spilled over to 2017 and was especially strong in the second quarter this was supported by a.

Amid these positive tailwinds, along with firming oil prices and growing macrostability. The second part of the report starts off with a presentation of the political and economic uncertainty axes that the scenarios are constructed from. Policy department, directorate general for external policies. Economic policy will remain statist, nationalist and protectionist while fiscal policy will be tight. The russian economic crisis council on foreign relations. Over the last two years, the governments policy response package of a flexible exchange rate policy, expenditure cuts in real. The russian economy is stagnating and russian president vladimir putins plan to revitalise. The main conclusion is that the russian welfare state will be able to. Russia is ranked in the top 10 nations in terms of economic production.

There is good reason to broaden our understanding of russian strategy in the middle east. Growth is projected to remain robust, as private consumption will. A weakening recovery in trade and manufacturing acti viti es is weighing down global growth figure 1a. Discussion paper economic constraints on russian foreign policy and what they mean for the united states christopher smart november 2017 this discussion paper was made possible by a grant from the. While russia s strong shortterm macroeconomic fundamentals make it better prepared than many emerging economies to deal with the. Global trade also continued to strengthen and external financing conditions remain benign. Russian energy policy toward neighboring countries congressional research service summary russian oil and natural gas industries have become key players in the global energy market, particularly in europe and eurasia. The russian economy is expected to slip into recession in 2020 amid low oil prices and the coronavirus outbreak. Russia s economic system is a form of patrimonial capitalism, a particular form of patrimonialism created when patrimonial systems reform under the influence of global economic forces. Russias sale of su35 fighter jets to china deliveries of which began in december 2016 will help the. Discussion paper economic constraints on russian foreign policy.

While the global economy weakened, russia s economic performance strengthened in the second half of 2011. Klaus schwab, the global competitiveness report 20172018, world economic forum, 2017. The economy picked up quickly in the aftermath of the crisis, growing at 4. Russian energy export pipelines to europe, such as nord stream 2. It makes a valuable contribution to the debate over how to deal with. In 2015 the russian economy began its difficult adjustment to the severe global oilprice shock and the imposition of economic sanctions in 2014. Income and wage growth continues to outstrip the expansion of gdp, and the retail trade boom shows no signs of abating. The russian crisis 1998 raboresearch economic research. Based on information available at the time of these. The dysfunction of the russian economic system stems from the fact that the current resourcebased economic model has reached the limits of its potential. In may 2018, russia set ambitious economic targets that include accelerating russia s growth to approximately 3 percent and halving the poverty rate to 6. Russias economic performance and policies and their. The imf and russia in the 1990s, by john odlingsmee wp04155.

In this issue, part 1 covers external sector developments, real sector trends in russia, balance of payments, the labor market, wages, productivity, poverty. Russias economic management is currently praised for its achievement of macroeconomic. For the latest forecasts on the economic impacts caused by the coronavirus pandemic, please consult the oecd economic outlook interim report coronavirus. In 2015 a sharp drop in the price of oil, russias main export earner, western combined with sanctions over ukraine, pushed the co untrys economy into recession. Russia economy gdp, inflation, cpi and interest rate. The global economy and oil prices g lobal growth is broadly stable but downside risks from rising trade tensions are increasing. One of putins former economy ministers warns that without change, russia is destined to face technological subjugation in the emerging economic order. Changes in world oil prices have had a much greater impact on the russian economy. Human development report for the russian federation 2005 the human development report 2005 for the russian federation has been prepared by a team of russian experts and consultants. China, russia and iran ramp up economic spying on us by deb riechmann july 26, 2018 gmt file in this nov. The impact of the crisis worldwide is proving far deeper and broader than previously thought. From recession to recovery world bank group 201705 global growth and trade started to strengthen at the end of 2016. Growth in russia received a boost from new increases in oil and gas prices, and from the rapid expansion of domestic demand. The russian federation had multiple economic reforms, including privatization and market and trade liberalization, due to collapse of communism.

Russias economic performance and policies and their implications for the united states congressional research service 1 s has been the case with most of the worlds economies, the russian economy has been hit hard by the global financial crisis and resulting recession that became readily apparent in the last quarter of 2008. The world bank in russia russian economic report no. Amid these positive tailwinds, along with firming oil prices and growing macrostability, the russian economy returned to modest growth in 2017. Modest growth focus on informality english abstract. Both economic growth and reform have stalled in recent years, however, and russia remains a predominantly statist economy with a high concentration of wealth in officials hands. Sample survey various years, annual population estimates from the registrar. This reflects in part a largerthanexpected carryover effect of growth, as growth in 2010 was revised upwards from 4. After a decade of high growth, the russian economy is experiencing a slowdown in the wake of the global financial crisis. Sep 12, 2019 venezuela is suffering one of the worlds worst humanitarian crisis in recent memory, russia has become a key actor that has provided a lifeline of support to maduro and his cronies. Having grown at an impressive 7 percent a year during 19992007and at an overheating.

World scenario series scenarios for the russian federation. Policy department, directorate general for external policies 4 1 economic relationships between russia and the in times eu of sanctions and economic downturn 1. Production in russia reached an alltime high of 11. The economy between 19 and 1919 a country with the largest territory, the third largest population, and the fourth largest economy of any in the world was reduced to an average level not seen in europe since the middle ages, and found today only in the poorest countries of africa and asia. Real gdp growth in russia surpassed expectations in 2018, reaching 2. Second, the outbreak of the russian crisis emphasizes the economic and financial fragility of emerging markets. Another trend has been the concentration of these industries in the hands of the russian government. Russian economy s resourcebased development model has reached the limits of its potential due to structural weaknesses, the dramatic decline in oil prices in the second half of 2014, and the impact of western economic sanctions. The russian economy is stagnating the moscow times. Economic policy views of the russian authorities throughout the 1990s, the russian governments public position was to pursue liberal economic reforms that would lead to the rapid establishment of a market economy.

The economy will have been hammered at the end of q1 2020, after growth accelerated in q4 2019. Getting the right skills and competencies for a modern russian economy. Given serious concerns regarding oilprice volatility, compounded by major downside risks to the global economic outlook, this report presents upperbound and lowerbound oil price scenarios along with the baseline. The staff report prepared by a staff team of the imf for the executive boards consideration on june 29, 2016, following discussions that ended on may 21, 2016, with the officials of the russian federation on economic developments and policies. Policy remains tight and structural reforms will help raise the economy s potential the central bank reacted quickly to inflationary pressures by raising its key interest rate in september, and should be ready to raise it further to anchor rising inflation russia source. Helped by broadbased growth, including a strong rebound in agriculture, russias output returned to precrisis. After a prolonged recession, russia s economy has continued to grow since 2017, supported by stronger global growth, higher oil prices, and solid macro fundamentals. In 200809, however, the russian economy was hit hard by the global economic crisis, shrinking by almost 8% within one year. A sharp rise in risk aversion has led to the emdes witnessing record portfolio outflows since the beginning of the year compared to any recent episode of.

This economic model appeared to show its limits, when after years of strong performance, russian economy expanded by a mere 1. Russia s economic performance in 2018 growth momentum in russia increased in the first half of 2018, supported by robust global growth, rising oil prices and a macro policy framework that has promoted stability. Leonid bershidsky, russia s pivot to china is real, bloomberg, june 25, 2015. Request pdf russian economic report the world has entered the first global recession since the second world war. Russia and iran have built up alliances with local businessmen in syria, and each country has established a business council to support and boost these relationships. The world has entered the first global recession since the second world war. Table 2 movement of economic growth and foreign trade indices in russia.

This report describes russian views of the current international order, drawing from analysis of russian interests and russian views of the history of the postcold war period. Helped by broadbased growth, including a strong rebound in agriculture, russia s output returned to precrisis. Russia s anticipated economic recovery was delayed. Inflation slowed down cpi index and its components, percent, yoy. Russia is currently constructing a 3,000 kilometer gas pipeline from eastern siberia to the chinese border. Russia continued its adjustment to lower oil prices and the environment of economic sanctions imposed in july 2014. Moscow times, russian state workers salaries skyrocket since putins reelection bid, march 12, 2018.

Unemployment is at near minimum levels percent figure 4. The report is intended for use by highranking administrative personnel, political scientists, teachers, scientific researchers and students of higher education. The intellectual leadership for these policies was provided by a relatively small group of. Global goods trade has decelerated more rapidly than expected.

Analyzing russian strategy can help prevent unwelcome surprises. The russian economic crisis council special report no. The key sectors targeted by russian and iranian companies include oil and gas, electricity, agriculture, tourism and real estate. Export data download historical data for 20 million indicators using your browser. In 2015 a sharp drop in the price of oil, russia s main export earner, western combined with sanctions over ukraine, pushed the co untrys economy into recession. Today, russias efforts to prop up nicolas maduro have been a relatively lowcost, but highreward strategy for moscow to sow further instability in the united states own hemisphere. Russia has become more resilient to external shocks since 2014, but the dual shock of collapsed global oil prices and deteriorating domestic demand amid the coronavirus outbreak will result in an economic contraction of 5. Economic history of the russian federation wikipedia. Modernising the russian economy russia still has a long way to go to reach the living standards of the most advanced marketoriented countries, despite clear improvements in the past decade figure 1.

Low investment demand hints at the deeper structural problems of the russian economy and has already initiated a new era of potentially small growth. Russias economic system is a form of patrimonial capitalism, a particular form of patrimonialism created when patrimonial systems reform under the influence of global economic forces. Pdf terms of trade and russian economic development. Could russia have followed a diff erent transformation path. The russian economic crisis, with its perceptive analysis and thoughtful recommendations, is thus both informative and timely. An initiative to create a russian equivalent of silicon valley has gone the way of previous topdown attempts at economic modernisation. Pdf after a decade of high growth, the russian econoomy is experiencing a slowdown in the wake of the global financial crisis. In terms of economic impact, studies suggest that sanctions have had a negative but relatively modest impact on russia s growth. Russia gdp annual growth rate 19962019 data 20202022. But the russian economy, aided by higher oil prices and stronger global demand, is beginning to turn aroundvery slowly. The world bank in russia russian economic report moderating. We expect the president, vladimir putin, to remain in power over the forecast period 202024. Russia economy, politics and gdp growth summary the.